PROPEDIA TENNIS
Paris · Chennai Open · Hong Kong Open
43 singles matches · 3 tournaments
Tour
Level
Venue
Event
BIGGEST MISMATCH
Polina Kudermetova 89%
Viktoria Morvayova vs Polina Kudermetova · Chennai Open
COIN FLIP OF THE DAY
Yastremska 50% / 50%
vs Zeynep Sonmez · Hong Kong Open — the market will price this tighter than the Elo gap
TOTAL GAMES OVER WATCH
O22.5 · 62%
Quentin Halys vs Arthur Fery — sim median 25 games, tiebreak 47%
MODEL ML RECORD
54-35
61% on 89 graded model ML picks · 60%+ picks: 41-21 · tracked since Oct 27
TODAYTuesday, November 3, 202637 matches
Alejandro DavidovichFokina #17 · Elo 197285% · fair -572
INDOOR HARDRound 106:30 ET · Paris
MoiseKouame #132 · Elo 165815% · fair +572
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Fokina 85% · Median 22 games · O22.5 46% · TB 38%
StefanosTsitsipas #34 · Elo 189747% · fair +112
INDOOR HARDRound 106:30 ET · Paris
LearnerTien #19 · Elo 191353% · fair -112
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Tien 53% · Median 26 games · O22.5 61% · TB 47%
AlexMichelsen #35 · Elo 186738% · fair +160
INDOOR HARDRound 109:00 ET · Paris
JiriLehecka #15 · Elo 196262% · fair -160
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Lehecka 62% · Median 25 games · O22.5 61% · TB 47%
BenjaminBonzi #95 · Elo 174125% · fair +298
INDOOR HARDRound 109:30 ET · Paris
TaylorFritz #12 · Elo 194675% · fair -298
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Fritz 75% · Median 23 games · O22.5 54% · TB 43%
Jan-LennardStruff #— · Elo —No model
INDOOR HARDRound 111:00 ET · Paris
ArthurGea #44 · Elo 1859No model
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
BenShelton #4 · Elo 196070% · fair -237
INDOOR HARDRound 213:00 ET · Paris
CameronNorrie #45 · Elo 181430% · fair +237
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Shelton 70% · Median 24 games · O22.5 57% · TB 45%
CasperRuud #23 · Elo 194141% · fair +146
INDOOR HARDRound 214:30 ET · Paris
RafaelJodar #10 · Elo 200159% · fair -146
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Jodar 59% · Median 25 games · O22.5 61% · TB 47%
AlionaFalei #210 · Elo 157530% · fair +236
OUTDOOR HARDRound 105:00 ET · Chennai Open
MagdaLinette #68 · Elo 174970% · fair -236
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Linette 70% · Median 23 games · O22.5 52% · TB 30%
MR
Maaya RajeshwaranRevathi #— · Elo —No model
OUTDOOR HARDRound 105:00 ET · Chennai Open
KatarzynaKawa #115 · Elo 1656No model
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
MeiYamaguchi #282 · Elo 140266% · fair -191
OUTDOOR HARDRound 105:30 ET · Chennai Open
ZhibekKulambayeva #473 · Elo 136434% · fair +191
ZK
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Yamaguchi 66% · Median 23 games · O22.5 54% · TB 30%
SahajaYamalapalli #423 · Elo 130516% · fair +514
OUTDOOR HARDRound 105:30 ET · Chennai Open
SimonaWaltert #133 · Elo 162684% · fair -514
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Waltert 84% · Median 21 games · O22.5 42% · TB 25%
AP
AlyciaParks #59 · Elo 165621% · fair +381
OUTDOOR HARDRound 105:30 ET · Hong Kong Open
AlexandraEala #17 · Elo 191779% · fair -381
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Eala 79% · Median 22 games · O22.5 46% · TB 28%
ArthurRinderknech #68 · Elo 175435% · fair +186
INDOOR HARDFINAL3-6 7-6 2-0
FranciscoCerundolo #20 · Elo 187365% · fair -186
RESULTRinderknech won 3-6 7-6 2-0 · Model ✗ (65%) · Sim median 25 games vs 24 actual
AndreyRublev #22 · Elo 186068% · fair -216
INDOOR HARDFINAL4-6 7-6 6-7
Tomas MartinEtcheverry #31 · Elo 173132% · fair +216
RESULTEtcheverry won 4-6 7-6 6-7 · Model ✗ (68%) · Sim median 25 games vs 36 actual
QuentinHalys #46 · Elo 178447% · fair +113
INDOOR HARDFINAL7-6 7-5
ArthurFery #32 · Elo 180753% · fair -113
RESULTHalys won 7-6 7-5 · Model ✗ (53%) · Sim median 25 games vs 25 actual
BrandonNakashima #18 · Elo 189760% · fair -153
INDOOR HARDFINAL4-6 6-3 6-7
MatteoBerrettini #43 · Elo 182440% · fair +153
RESULTBerrettini won 4-6 6-3 6-7 · Model ✗ (60%) · Sim median 25 games vs 32 actual
TommyPaul #14 · Elo 1955No model
INDOOR HARDFINAL7-5 6-4
HolgerRune #— · Elo —No model
RESULTPaul won 7-5 6-4 · No model
NovakDjokovic #11 · Elo 205466% · fair -194
INDOOR HARDFINAL6-7 7-5 6-1
ValentinVacherot #27 · Elo 193434% · fair +194
VV
RESULTDjokovic won 6-7 7-5 6-1 · Model ✓ (66%) · Sim median 25 games vs 32 actual
OksanaSelekhmeteva #122 · Elo 161346% · fair +116
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL6-4 6-3
TeodoraKostovic #141 · Elo 165654% · fair -116
RESULTSelekhmeteva won 6-4 6-3 · Model ✗ (54%) · Sim median 24 games vs 19 actual
JT
JilTeichmann #147 · Elo 170158% · fair -135
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL3-6 4-6
JoannaGarland #196 · Elo 161742% · fair +135
RESULTGarland won 3-6 4-6 · Model ✗ (58%) · Sim median 24 games vs 19 actual
PannaUdvardy #86 · Elo 166140% · fair +150
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL4-6 6-1 1-6
RobinMontgomery #151 · Elo 172460% · fair -150
RESULTMontgomery won 4-6 6-1 1-6 · Model ✓ (60%) · Sim median 24 games vs 24 actual
VM
ViktoriaMorvayova #323 · Elo 132411% · fair +792
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL3-6 6-4 1-6
PolinaKudermetova #93 · Elo 170989% · fair -792
RESULTKudermetova won 3-6 6-4 1-6 · Model ✓ (89%) · Sim median 20 games vs 26 actual
AnastasiaZakharova #107 · Elo 167258% · fair -137
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL7-6 6-1
PolinaIatcenko #169 · Elo 162642% · fair +137
RESULTZakharova won 7-6 6-1 · Model ✓ (58%) · Sim median 24 games vs 20 actual
JT
JaniceTjen #75 · Elo 1714No model
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL6-1 6-2
KatherineHui #— · Elo —No model
RESULTTjen won 6-1 6-2 · No model
JelineVandromme #126 · Elo 162666% · fair -198
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL7-5 6-1
KyokaOkamura #249 · Elo 151534% · fair +198
RESULTVandromme won 7-5 6-1 · Model ✓ (66%) · Sim median 23 games vs 19 actual
LindaFruhvirtova #167 · Elo 155872% · fair -258
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL6-7 4-6
WeronikaFalkowska #277 · Elo 136928% · fair +258
WF
RESULTFalkowska won 6-7 4-6 · Model ✗ (72%) · Sim median 23 games vs 23 actual
JodieBurrage #— · Elo —No model
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL6-3 3-6 5-7
VaishnaviAdkar #344 · Elo 1241No model
VA
RESULTAdkar won 6-3 3-6 5-7 · No model
RZ
RadaZolotareva #328 · Elo 155425% · fair +307
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL2-6 2-6
LucreziaStefanini #117 · Elo 167975% · fair -307
RESULTStefanini won 2-6 2-6 · Model ✓ (75%) · Sim median 22 games vs 16 actual
MoyukaUchijima #123 · Elo 159038% · fair +163
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL6-3 6-2
RebeccaSramkova #146 · Elo 167062% · fair -163
RESULTUchijima won 6-3 6-2 · Model ✗ (62%) · Sim median 24 games vs 17 actual
MananchayaSawangkaew #77 · Elo 169769% · fair -219
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL6-7 2-6
MaiHontama #160 · Elo 155331% · fair +219
RESULTHontama won 6-7 2-6 · Model ✗ (69%) · Sim median 23 games vs 21 actual
DayanaYastremska #99 · Elo 175950% · fair -102
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL4-6 2-6
ZeynepSonmez #67 · Elo 176050% · fair +102
RESULTSonmez won 4-6 2-6 · Model ✗ (50%) · Sim median 24 games vs 18 actual
TaliaGibson #36 · Elo 173672% · fair -260
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL7-6 6-1
OleksandraOliynykova #62 · Elo 165528% · fair +260
RESULTGibson won 7-6 6-1 · Model ✓ (72%) · Sim median 23 games vs 20 actual
MaddisonInglis #135 · Elo 162632% · fair +212
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL5-7 2-6
MayaJoint #90 · Elo 176068% · fair -212
RESULTJoint won 5-7 2-6 · Model ✓ (68%) · Sim median 23 games vs 20 actual
SoranaCirstea #15 · Elo 192571% · fair -246
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL7-6 1-6 7-5
MariaTimofeeva #70 · Elo 177929% · fair +246
RESULTCirstea won 7-6 1-6 7-5 · Model ✓ (71%) · Sim median 23 games vs 32 actual
HimenoSakatsume #129 · Elo 161826% · fair +284
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL3-6 5-7
TerezaValentova #85 · Elo 180074% · fair -284
RESULTValentova won 3-6 5-7 · Model ✓ (74%) · Sim median 23 games vs 21 actual
AlexandraShubladze #136 · Elo 158724% · fair +324
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL5-7 6-1 6-2
LiudmilaSamsonova #40 · Elo 181076% · fair -324
RESULTShubladze won 5-7 6-1 6-2 · Model ✗ (76%) · Sim median 22 games vs 27 actual
ElenaPridankina #206 · Elo 157821% · fair +378
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL7-5
PaulaBadosa #57 · Elo 181179% · fair -378
RESULTPridankina won 7-5 · Model ✗ (79%) · Sim median 22 games vs 12 actual
TOMORROWWednesday, November 4, 20266 matches
AlexanderZverev #1 · Elo 210277% · fair -331
INDOOR HARDRound 2TBD ET · Paris
LorenzoMusetti #24 · Elo 189623% · fair +331
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Zverev 77% · Median 23 games · O22.5 53% · TB 43%
IB
IgnacioBuse #33 · Elo 175716% · fair +525
INDOOR HARDRound 2TBD ET · Paris
DaniilMedvedev #5 · Elo 200384% · fair -525
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Medvedev 84% · Median 22 games · O22.5 46% · TB 39%
ArthurFils #7 · Elo 200176% · fair -311
INDOOR HARDRound 2TBD ET · Paris
TomasMachac #69 · Elo 179324% · fair +311
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Fils 76% · Median 23 games · O22.5 54% · TB 43%
AntoniaRuzic #81 · Elo 169039% · fair +156
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Hong Kong Open
AlinaCharaeva #82 · Elo 177861% · fair -156
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Charaeva 61% · Median 24 games · O22.5 55% · TB 32%
LeylahFernandez #18 · Elo 191082% · fair -467
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Hong Kong Open
SofiaKenin #187 · Elo 165818% · fair +467
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Fernandez 82% · Median 22 games · O22.5 45% · TB 27%
ClaireLiu #102 · Elo 170236% · fair +181
OUTDOOR HARDRound 2TBD ET · Hong Kong Open
KatieBoulter #49 · Elo 179764% · fair -181
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Boulter 64% · Median 23 games · O22.5 53% · TB 31%

How the model works — formula ships with the board, like every Propedia section

Win % = Elo expectancy on a blended rating gap: gap = 0.7 × (surface Elo gap — the surface being played) + 0.3 × (overall Elo gap), P = 1 / (1 + 10^(−gap/400)). Elo ratings are Jeff Sackmann's published Tennis Abstract ratings (overall + Hard/Clay/Grass splits, updated weekly). The sim then converts that win % into a serve-point edge around the tour serve baseline (ATP 64.0% / WTA 56.5% of service points won), calibrates it through the exact point→game→set chain, and runs 10,000 Monte Carlo matches for total games, tiebreak and set-score distributions. Sim win % tracks the Elo win % within ~1 pt across the day's modelled matches — that's the calibration check.
Surface & form design: every stat splits by surface (Hard / Clay / Grass Elo shown in the Tape); recent form is computed on-surface and recency-weighted in the production build — a clay run does not inflate a grass number.
Known gaps, shown not hidden: A player with no current Tennis Abstract Elo carries no model % on their card. Charting stats (Match Charting Project, last 52 weeks) only exist for players with 5+ charted matches. Book lines are not in any free feed we hold — model % + fair odds only, exactly how UFC launched.
SURFACE WATCH
Off their best surface today — Elo drop in red
Casper Ruud · Paris−82
Best: Clay 1946  ·  Today: Hard 1864
Katarzyna Kawa · Chennai Open−61
Best: Clay 1616  ·  Today: Hard 1555
Zhibek Kulambayeva · Chennai Open−126
Best: Grass 1357  ·  Today: Hard 1231
Simona Waltert · Chennai Open−75
Best: Clay 1634  ·  Today: Hard 1560
Robin Montgomery · Chennai Open−70
Best: Grass 1716  ·  Today: Hard 1646
Vaishnavi Adkar · Chennai Open−68
Best: Grass 1296  ·  Today: Hard 1227
Rada Zolotareva · Chennai Open−104
Best: Clay 1532  ·  Today: Hard 1428
Oleksandra Oliynykova · Hong Kong Open−155
Best: Clay 1680  ·  Today: Hard 1525
Ignacio Buse · Paris−67
Best: Clay 1737  ·  Today: Hard 1670