PROPEDIA TENNIS
Paris · Chennai Open · Hong Kong Open
43 singles matches · 3 tournaments
Tour
Level
Venue
Event
BIGGEST MISMATCH
Polina Kudermetova 89%
Viktoria Morvayova vs Polina Kudermetova · Chennai Open
COIN FLIP OF THE DAY
Yastremska 50% / 50%
vs Zeynep Sonmez · Hong Kong Open — the market will price this tighter than the Elo gap
TOTAL GAMES OVER WATCH
O22.5 · 62%
Quentin Halys vs Arthur Fery — sim median 25 games, tiebreak 47%
MODEL ML RECORD
42-25
63% on 67 graded model ML picks · 60%+ picks: 31-13 · tracked since Oct 27
TODAYTuesday, November 3, 202637 matches
ArthurRinderknech #68 · Elo 175435% · fair +186
INDOOR HARDRound 105:00 ET · Paris
FranciscoCerundolo #20 · Elo 187365% · fair -186
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Cerundolo 65% · Median 25 games · O22.5 60% · TB 46%
AndreyRublev #22 · Elo 186068% · fair -216
INDOOR HARDRound 105:00 ET · Paris
Tomas MartinEtcheverry #31 · Elo 173132% · fair +216
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Rublev 68% · Median 25 games · O22.5 58% · TB 46%
QuentinHalys #46 · Elo 178447% · fair +113
INDOOR HARDRound 105:00 ET · Paris
ArthurFery #32 · Elo 180753% · fair -113
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Fery 53% · Median 25 games · O22.5 62% · TB 47%
BrandonNakashima #18 · Elo 189760% · fair -153
INDOOR HARDRound 106:30 ET · Paris
MatteoBerrettini #43 · Elo 182440% · fair +153
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Nakashima 60% · Median 25 games · O22.5 61% · TB 48%
Alejandro DavidovichFokina #17 · Elo 197285% · fair -572
INDOOR HARDRound 106:30 ET · Paris
MoiseKouame #132 · Elo 165815% · fair +572
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Fokina 85% · Median 22 games · O22.5 46% · TB 38%
StefanosTsitsipas #34 · Elo 189747% · fair +112
INDOOR HARDRound 106:30 ET · Paris
LearnerTien #19 · Elo 191353% · fair -112
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Tien 53% · Median 26 games · O22.5 61% · TB 47%
TommyPaul #14 · Elo 1955No model
INDOOR HARDRound 108:00 ET · Paris
HolgerRune #— · Elo —No model
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
NovakDjokovic #11 · Elo 205466% · fair -194
INDOOR HARDRound 108:00 ET · Paris
ValentinVacherot #27 · Elo 193434% · fair +194
VV
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Djokovic 66% · Median 25 games · O22.5 59% · TB 46%
AlexMichelsen #35 · Elo 186738% · fair +160
INDOOR HARDRound 109:00 ET · Paris
JiriLehecka #15 · Elo 196262% · fair -160
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Lehecka 62% · Median 25 games · O22.5 61% · TB 47%
BenjaminBonzi #95 · Elo 174125% · fair +298
INDOOR HARDRound 109:30 ET · Paris
TaylorFritz #12 · Elo 194675% · fair -298
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Fritz 75% · Median 23 games · O22.5 54% · TB 43%
Jan-LennardStruff #— · Elo —No model
INDOOR HARDRound 111:00 ET · Paris
ArthurGea #44 · Elo 1859No model
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
BenShelton #4 · Elo 196070% · fair -237
INDOOR HARDRound 213:00 ET · Paris
CameronNorrie #45 · Elo 181430% · fair +237
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Shelton 70% · Median 24 games · O22.5 57% · TB 45%
CasperRuud #23 · Elo 194141% · fair +146
INDOOR HARDRound 214:30 ET · Paris
RafaelJodar #10 · Elo 200159% · fair -146
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Jodar 59% · Median 25 games · O22.5 61% · TB 47%
OksanaSelekhmeteva #122 · Elo 161346% · fair +116
OUTDOOR HARDRound 100:30 ET · Chennai Open
TeodoraKostovic #141 · Elo 165654% · fair -116
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Kostovic 54% · Median 24 games · O22.5 56% · TB 32%
JT
JilTeichmann #147 · Elo 170158% · fair -135
OUTDOOR HARDRound 100:30 ET · Chennai Open
JoannaGarland #196 · Elo 161742% · fair +135
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Teichmann 58% · Median 24 games · O22.5 55% · TB 31%
PannaUdvardy #86 · Elo 166140% · fair +150
OUTDOOR HARDRound 100:30 ET · Chennai Open
RobinMontgomery #151 · Elo 172460% · fair -150
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Montgomery 60% · Median 24 games · O22.5 55% · TB 32%
VM
ViktoriaMorvayova #323 · Elo 132411% · fair +792
OUTDOOR HARDRound 102:00 ET · Chennai Open
PolinaKudermetova #93 · Elo 170989% · fair -792
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Kudermetova 89% · Median 20 games · O22.5 38% · TB 23%
AnastasiaZakharova #107 · Elo 167258% · fair -137
OUTDOOR HARDRound 102:00 ET · Chennai Open
PolinaIatcenko #169 · Elo 162642% · fair +137
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Zakharova 58% · Median 24 games · O22.5 56% · TB 30%
JT
JaniceTjen #75 · Elo 1714No model
OUTDOOR HARDRound 102:00 ET · Chennai Open
KatherineHui #— · Elo —No model
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
JelineVandromme #126 · Elo 162666% · fair -198
OUTDOOR HARDRound 102:00 ET · Chennai Open
KyokaOkamura #249 · Elo 151534% · fair +198
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Vandromme 66% · Median 23 games · O22.5 54% · TB 30%
LindaFruhvirtova #167 · Elo 155872% · fair -258
OUTDOOR HARDRound 102:00 ET · Chennai Open
WeronikaFalkowska #277 · Elo 136928% · fair +258
WF
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Fruhvirtova 72% · Median 23 games · O22.5 51% · TB 29%
JodieBurrage #— · Elo —No model
OUTDOOR HARDRound 103:30 ET · Chennai Open
VaishnaviAdkar #344 · Elo 1241No model
VA
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
RZ
RadaZolotareva #328 · Elo 155425% · fair +307
OUTDOOR HARDRound 103:30 ET · Chennai Open
LucreziaStefanini #117 · Elo 167975% · fair -307
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Stefanini 75% · Median 22 games · O22.5 50% · TB 28%
MoyukaUchijima #123 · Elo 159038% · fair +163
OUTDOOR HARDRound 103:30 ET · Chennai Open
RebeccaSramkova #146 · Elo 167062% · fair -163
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Sramkova 62% · Median 24 games · O22.5 54% · TB 31%
AlionaFalei #210 · Elo 157530% · fair +236
OUTDOOR HARDRound 105:00 ET · Chennai Open
MagdaLinette #68 · Elo 174970% · fair -236
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Linette 70% · Median 23 games · O22.5 52% · TB 30%
MR
Maaya RajeshwaranRevathi #— · Elo —No model
OUTDOOR HARDRound 105:00 ET · Chennai Open
KatarzynaKawa #115 · Elo 1656No model
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
MananchayaSawangkaew #77 · Elo 169769% · fair -219
OUTDOOR HARDRound 105:30 ET · Chennai Open
MaiHontama #160 · Elo 155331% · fair +219
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Sawangkaew 69% · Median 23 games · O22.5 53% · TB 31%
MeiYamaguchi #282 · Elo 140266% · fair -191
OUTDOOR HARDRound 105:30 ET · Chennai Open
ZhibekKulambayeva #473 · Elo 136434% · fair +191
ZK
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Yamaguchi 66% · Median 23 games · O22.5 54% · TB 30%
SahajaYamalapalli #423 · Elo 130516% · fair +514
OUTDOOR HARDRound 105:30 ET · Chennai Open
SimonaWaltert #133 · Elo 162684% · fair -514
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Waltert 84% · Median 21 games · O22.5 42% · TB 25%
DayanaYastremska #99 · Elo 175950% · fair -102
OUTDOOR HARDRound 101:00 ET · Hong Kong Open
ZeynepSonmez #67 · Elo 176050% · fair +102
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Yastremska 50% · Median 24 games · O22.5 57% · TB 32%
TaliaGibson #36 · Elo 173672% · fair -260
OUTDOOR HARDRound 101:00 ET · Hong Kong Open
OleksandraOliynykova #62 · Elo 165528% · fair +260
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Gibson 72% · Median 23 games · O22.5 51% · TB 29%
MaddisonInglis #135 · Elo 162632% · fair +212
OUTDOOR HARDRound 102:30 ET · Hong Kong Open
MayaJoint #90 · Elo 176068% · fair -212
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Joint 68% · Median 23 games · O22.5 53% · TB 31%
SoranaCirstea #15 · Elo 192571% · fair -246
OUTDOOR HARDRound 102:30 ET · Hong Kong Open
MariaTimofeeva #70 · Elo 177929% · fair +246
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Cirstea 71% · Median 23 games · O22.5 52% · TB 30%
HimenoSakatsume #129 · Elo 161826% · fair +284
OUTDOOR HARDRound 104:00 ET · Hong Kong Open
TerezaValentova #85 · Elo 180074% · fair -284
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Valentova 74% · Median 23 games · O22.5 50% · TB 29%
AlexandraShubladze #136 · Elo 158724% · fair +324
OUTDOOR HARDRound 104:00 ET · Hong Kong Open
LiudmilaSamsonova #40 · Elo 181076% · fair -324
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Samsonova 76% · Median 22 games · O22.5 48% · TB 28%
AP
AlyciaParks #59 · Elo 165621% · fair +381
OUTDOOR HARDRound 105:30 ET · Hong Kong Open
AlexandraEala #17 · Elo 191779% · fair -381
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Eala 79% · Median 22 games · O22.5 46% · TB 28%
ElenaPridankina #206 · Elo 157821% · fair +378
OUTDOOR HARDRound 107:00 ET · Hong Kong Open
PaulaBadosa #57 · Elo 181179% · fair -378
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Badosa 79% · Median 22 games · O22.5 47% · TB 27%
TOMORROWWednesday, November 4, 20266 matches
AlexanderZverev #1 · Elo 210277% · fair -331
INDOOR HARDRound 2TBD ET · Paris
LorenzoMusetti #24 · Elo 189623% · fair +331
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Zverev 77% · Median 23 games · O22.5 53% · TB 43%
IB
IgnacioBuse #33 · Elo 175716% · fair +525
INDOOR HARDRound 2TBD ET · Paris
DaniilMedvedev #5 · Elo 200384% · fair -525
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Medvedev 84% · Median 22 games · O22.5 46% · TB 39%
ArthurFils #7 · Elo 200176% · fair -311
INDOOR HARDRound 2TBD ET · Paris
TomasMachac #69 · Elo 179324% · fair +311
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Fils 76% · Median 23 games · O22.5 54% · TB 43%
AntoniaRuzic #81 · Elo 169039% · fair +156
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Hong Kong Open
AlinaCharaeva #82 · Elo 177861% · fair -156
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Charaeva 61% · Median 24 games · O22.5 55% · TB 32%
LeylahFernandez #18 · Elo 191082% · fair -467
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Hong Kong Open
SofiaKenin #187 · Elo 165818% · fair +467
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Fernandez 82% · Median 22 games · O22.5 45% · TB 27%
ClaireLiu #102 · Elo 170236% · fair +181
OUTDOOR HARDRound 2TBD ET · Hong Kong Open
KatieBoulter #49 · Elo 179764% · fair -181
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Boulter 64% · Median 23 games · O22.5 53% · TB 31%

How the model works — formula ships with the board, like every Propedia section

Win % = Elo expectancy on a blended rating gap: gap = 0.7 × (surface Elo gap — the surface being played) + 0.3 × (overall Elo gap), P = 1 / (1 + 10^(−gap/400)). Elo ratings are Jeff Sackmann's published Tennis Abstract ratings (overall + Hard/Clay/Grass splits, updated weekly). The sim then converts that win % into a serve-point edge around the tour serve baseline (ATP 64.0% / WTA 56.5% of service points won), calibrates it through the exact point→game→set chain, and runs 10,000 Monte Carlo matches for total games, tiebreak and set-score distributions. Sim win % tracks the Elo win % within ~1 pt across the day's modelled matches — that's the calibration check.
Surface & form design: every stat splits by surface (Hard / Clay / Grass Elo shown in the Tape); recent form is computed on-surface and recency-weighted in the production build — a clay run does not inflate a grass number.
Known gaps, shown not hidden: A player with no current Tennis Abstract Elo carries no model % on their card. Charting stats (Match Charting Project, last 52 weeks) only exist for players with 5+ charted matches. Book lines are not in any free feed we hold — model % + fair odds only, exactly how UFC launched.
SURFACE WATCH
Off their best surface today — Elo drop in red
Casper Ruud · Paris−82
Best: Clay 1946  ·  Today: Hard 1864
Robin Montgomery · Chennai Open−70
Best: Grass 1716  ·  Today: Hard 1646
Vaishnavi Adkar · Chennai Open−68
Best: Grass 1296  ·  Today: Hard 1227
Rada Zolotareva · Chennai Open−104
Best: Clay 1532  ·  Today: Hard 1428
Katarzyna Kawa · Chennai Open−61
Best: Clay 1616  ·  Today: Hard 1555
Zhibek Kulambayeva · Chennai Open−126
Best: Grass 1357  ·  Today: Hard 1231
Simona Waltert · Chennai Open−75
Best: Clay 1634  ·  Today: Hard 1560
Oleksandra Oliynykova · Hong Kong Open−155
Best: Clay 1680  ·  Today: Hard 1525
Ignacio Buse · Paris−67
Best: Clay 1737  ·  Today: Hard 1670