PROPEDIA TENNIS
Paris · Chennai Open · Hong Kong Open
56 singles matches · 3 tournaments
Tour
Level
Venue
Event
BIGGEST MISMATCH
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 93%
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Moise Kouame · Paris · Rolex Paris Masters
COIN FLIP OF THE DAY
Assche 50% / 50%
vs Mariano Navone · Paris · Rolex Paris Masters — the market will price this tighter than the Elo gap
TOTAL GAMES OVER WATCH
O22.5 · 62%
Denis Shapovalov vs Karen Khachanov — sim median 26 games, tiebreak 48%
MODEL ML RECORD
42-25
63% on 67 graded model ML picks · 60%+ picks: 31-13 · tracked since Oct 27
TODAYMonday, November 2, 202626 matches
DM
DanielMerida #— · Elo —No model
INDOOR HARDRound 108:00 ET · Paris
AlexanderBlockx #27 · Elo 1858No model
AB
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
KyrianJacquet #79 · Elo 174545% · fair +122
INDOOR HARDRound 109:30 ET · Paris
TomasMachac #71 · Elo 178955% · fair -122
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Machac 55% · Median 25 games · O22.5 61% · TB 47%
AlexMolcan #80 · Elo 176442% · fair +138
INDOOR HARDRound 111:00 ET · Paris
TitouanDroguet #72 · Elo 180058% · fair -138
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Droguet 58% · Median 25 games · O22.5 61% · TB 48%
DenisShapovalov #52 · Elo 181647% · fair +112
INDOOR HARDRound 113:00 ET · Paris
KarenKhachanov #24 · Elo 186253% · fair -112
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Khachanov 53% · Median 26 games · O22.5 62% · TB 48%
UgoHumbert #38 · Elo 180849% · fair +105
INDOOR HARDRound 114:30 ET · Paris
Botic VanDe Zandschulp #37 · Elo 182151% · fair -105
MATCH SIMSim (10k): De Zandschulp 51% · Median 26 games · O22.5 62% · TB 48%
MananchayaSawangkaew #80 · Elo 172172% · fair -264
OUTDOOR HARDRound 104:30 ET · Chennai Open
MaiHontama #163 · Elo 154328% · fair +264
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Sawangkaew 72% · Median 23 games · O22.5 52% · TB 30%
AlionaFalei #196 · Elo 157530% · fair +236
OUTDOOR HARDRound 104:30 ET · Chennai Open
MagdaLinette #71 · Elo 175070% · fair -236
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Linette 70% · Median 23 games · O22.5 52% · TB 30%
JelineVandromme #124 · Elo 165067% · fair -205
OUTDOOR HARDRound 104:30 ET · Chennai Open
KyokaOkamura #241 · Elo 153333% · fair +205
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Vandromme 67% · Median 23 games · O22.5 53% · TB 31%
MeiYamaguchi #257 · Elo 138463% · fair -171
OUTDOOR HARDRound 105:30 ET · Chennai Open
ZhibekKulambayeva #469 · Elo 136437% · fair +171
ZK
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Yamaguchi 63% · Median 24 games · O22.5 55% · TB 31%
LindaFruhvirtova #153 · Elo 157974% · fair -291
OUTDOOR HARDRound 106:00 ET · Chennai Open
WeronikaFalkowska #287 · Elo 136926% · fair +291
WF
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Fruhvirtova 74% · Median 22 games · O22.5 50% · TB 29%
MoyukaUchijima #121 · Elo 159439% · fair +159
OUTDOOR HARDRound 106:00 ET · Chennai Open
RebeccaSramkova #142 · Elo 167061% · fair -159
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Sramkova 61% · Median 24 games · O22.5 55% · TB 32%
SahajaYamalapalli #369 · Elo 130515% · fair +549
OUTDOOR HARDRound 107:30 ET · Chennai Open
SimonaWaltert #128 · Elo 163685% · fair -549
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Waltert 85% · Median 21 games · O22.5 42% · TB 25%
LucianoDarderi #23 · Elo 180357% · fair -131
INDOOR HARDFINAL2-6 2-6
RinkyHijikata #85 · Elo 172143% · fair +131
RESULTHijikata won 2-6 2-6 · Model ✗ (57%) · Sim median 25 games vs 16 actual
LorenzoMusetti #26 · Elo 189850% · fair +102
INDOOR HARDFINAL7-6 7-6
HubertHurkacz #28 · Elo 189850% · fair -102
RESULTMusetti won 7-6 7-6 · Model ✗ (50%) · Sim median 25 games vs 26 actual
IB
IgnacioBuse #32 · Elo 177542% · fair +140
INDOOR HARDFINAL6-2 6-4
ZizouBergs #39 · Elo 181258% · fair -140
RESULTBuse won 6-2 6-4 · Model ✗ (58%) · Sim median 25 games vs 18 actual
LucaVan Assche #46 · Elo 177050% · fair +100
INDOOR HARDFINAL6-3 7-5
MarianoNavone #43 · Elo 179650% · fair -100
RESULTVan Assche won 6-3 7-5 · Model ✗ (50%) · Sim median 25 games vs 21 actual
AlejandroTabilo #30 · Elo 179223% · fair +336
INDOOR HARDFINAL2-6 3-6
RafaelJodar #11 · Elo 201977% · fair -336
RESULTJodar won 2-6 3-6 · Model ✓ (77%) · Sim median 23 games vs 17 actual
CameronNorrie #41 · Elo 180761% · fair -158
INDOOR HARDFINAL6-4 1-6 6-3
MatteoArnaldi #36 · Elo 175139% · fair +158
RESULTNorrie won 6-4 1-6 6-3 · Model ✓ (61%) · Sim median 25 games vs 26 actual
CasperRuud #25 · Elo 195276% · fair -308
INDOOR HARDFINAL6-3 6-2
Juan ManuelCerundolo #54 · Elo 177124% · fair +308
RESULTRuud won 6-3 6-2 · Model ✓ (76%) · Sim median 23 games vs 17 actual
MattiaBellucci #66 · Elo 171053% · fair -114
INDOOR HARDFINAL6-4 6-3
LorenzoSonego #91 · Elo 167647% · fair +114
RESULTBellucci won 6-4 6-3 · Model ✓ (53%) · Sim median 26 games vs 19 actual
ClaireLiu #109 · Elo 170549% · fair +105
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL6-2 6-4
TatianaProzorova #123 · Elo 169851% · fair -105
RESULTLiu won 6-2 6-4 · Model ✗ (51%) · Sim median 24 games vs 18 actual
ViktorijaGolubic #74 · Elo 176244% · fair +129
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL2-6 6-7
KatieBoulter #48 · Elo 179756% · fair -129
RESULTBoulter won 2-6 6-7 · Model ✓ (56%) · Sim median 24 games vs 21 actual
KatieVolynets #81 · Elo 180257% · fair -134
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL3-6 2-6
AliaksandraSasnovich #112 · Elo 174143% · fair +134
RESULTSasnovich won 3-6 2-6 · Model ✗ (57%) · Sim median 24 games vs 17 actual
Carol Young SuhLee #156 · Elo 164124% · fair +319
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL1-6 4-6
MariaSakkari #30 · Elo 185176% · fair -319
RESULTSakkari won 1-6 4-6 · Model ✓ (76%) · Sim median 22 games vs 17 actual
VenusWilliams #— · Elo —No model
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL2-6 3-6
MaryStoiana #113 · Elo 1733No model
RESULTStoiana won 2-6 3-6 · No model
WangXinyu #— · Elo —No model
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL6-1 6-1
AdithyaKarunaratne #— · Elo —No model
AK
RESULTXinyu won 6-1 6-1 · No model
TOMORROWTuesday, November 3, 202630 matches
TommyPaul #14 · Elo 1947No model
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
HolgerRune #— · Elo —No model
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
ArthurRinderknech #61 · Elo 176835% · fair +187
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
FranciscoCerundolo #19 · Elo 188665% · fair -187
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Cerundolo 65% · Median 25 games · O22.5 59% · TB 47%
AlexMichelsen #34 · Elo 186439% · fair +157
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
JiriLehecka #21 · Elo 195661% · fair -157
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Lehecka 61% · Median 25 games · O22.5 61% · TB 47%
AndreyRublev #22 · Elo 186768% · fair -212
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
Tomas MartinEtcheverry #29 · Elo 174032% · fair +212
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Rublev 68% · Median 25 games · O22.5 58% · TB 45%
BrandonNakashima #17 · Elo 191064% · fair -181
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
MatteoBerrettini #48 · Elo 180936% · fair +181
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Nakashima 64% · Median 25 games · O22.5 60% · TB 47%
BenjaminBonzi #99 · Elo 174126% · fair +277
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
TaylorFritz #13 · Elo 193574% · fair -277
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Fritz 74% · Median 23 games · O22.5 56% · TB 44%
NovakDjokovic #12 · Elo 206377% · fair -327
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
ValentinVacherot #31 · Elo 185823% · fair +327
VV
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Djokovic 77% · Median 23 games · O22.5 52% · TB 43%
Alejandro DavidovichFokina #15 · Elo 197293% · fair -1381
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
MoiseKouame #176 · Elo 15127% · fair +1381
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Fokina 93% · Median 20 games · O22.5 34% · TB 31%
Jan-LennardStruff #— · Elo —No model
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
ArthurGea #44 · Elo 1859No model
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
StefanosTsitsipas #33 · Elo 189747% · fair +114
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
LearnerTien #18 · Elo 191653% · fair -114
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Tien 53% · Median 26 games · O22.5 62% · TB 47%
QuentinHalys #45 · Elo 179454% · fair -117
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
ArthurFery #35 · Elo 177346% · fair +117
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Halys 54% · Median 26 games · O22.5 62% · TB 48%
VM
ViktoriaMorvayova #274 · Elo 132410% · fair +857
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Chennai Open
PolinaKudermetova #91 · Elo 172390% · fair -857
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Kudermetova 90% · Median 20 games · O22.5 36% · TB 22%
ElsaJacquemot #135 · Elo 153028% · fair +259
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Chennai Open
LucreziaStefanini #118 · Elo 169472% · fair -259
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Stefanini 72% · Median 23 games · O22.5 52% · TB 30%
PannaUdvardy #78 · Elo 167039% · fair +159
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Chennai Open
RobinMontgomery #150 · Elo 174461% · fair -159
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Montgomery 61% · Median 24 games · O22.5 56% · TB 32%
MR
Maaya RajeshwaranRevathi #— · Elo —No model
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Chennai Open
KatarzynaKawa #106 · Elo 1656No model
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
JT
JilTeichmann #168 · Elo 168756% · fair -127
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Chennai Open
JoannaGarland #155 · Elo 161144% · fair +127
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Teichmann 56% · Median 24 games · O22.5 56% · TB 32%
JodieBurrage #— · Elo —No model
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Chennai Open
VaishnaviAdkar #334 · Elo 1241No model
VA
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
AnastasiaZakharova #105 · Elo 169561% · fair -155
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Chennai Open
PolinaIatcenko #147 · Elo 163039% · fair +155
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Zakharova 61% · Median 24 games · O22.5 55% · TB 31%
OksanaSelekhmeteva #120 · Elo 162350% · fair +101
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Chennai Open
TeodoraKostovic #143 · Elo 164550% · fair -101
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Kostovic 50% · Median 24 games · O22.5 56% · TB 32%
JT
JaniceTjen #47 · Elo 1718No model
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Chennai Open
KatherineHui #— · Elo —No model
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
ElenaPridankina #190 · Elo 157521% · fair +376
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Hong Kong Open
PaulaBadosa #61 · Elo 181079% · fair -376
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Badosa 79% · Median 22 games · O22.5 48% · TB 28%
AlexandraShubladze #133 · Elo 161124% · fair +312
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Hong Kong Open
LiudmilaSamsonova #43 · Elo 182876% · fair -312
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Samsonova 76% · Median 22 games · O22.5 49% · TB 28%
AntoniaRuzic #84 · Elo 170449% · fair +106
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Hong Kong Open
AlinaCharaeva #100 · Elo 173551% · fair -106
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Charaeva 51% · Median 24 games · O22.5 56% · TB 31%
SoranaCirstea #16 · Elo 193771% · fair -246
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Hong Kong Open
MariaTimofeeva #72 · Elo 179229% · fair +246
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Cirstea 71% · Median 23 games · O22.5 51% · TB 29%
MaddisonInglis #130 · Elo 164040% · fair +151
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Hong Kong Open
MayaJoint #94 · Elo 171560% · fair -151
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Joint 60% · Median 24 games · O22.5 55% · TB 32%
HimenoSakatsume #114 · Elo 162326% · fair +283
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Hong Kong Open
TerezaValentova #87 · Elo 180474% · fair -283
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Valentova 74% · Median 23 games · O22.5 51% · TB 28%
AP
AlyciaParks #65 · Elo 161617% · fair +484
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Hong Kong Open
AlexandraEala #19 · Elo 191983% · fair -484
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Eala 83% · Median 21 games · O22.5 43% · TB 25%
LeylahFernandez #23 · Elo 189580% · fair -409
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Hong Kong Open
SofiaKenin #187 · Elo 166720% · fair +409
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Fernandez 80% · Median 22 games · O22.5 46% · TB 27%
TaliaGibson #38 · Elo 172768% · fair -216
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Hong Kong Open
OleksandraOliynykova #62 · Elo 167932% · fair +216
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Gibson 68% · Median 23 games · O22.5 54% · TB 30%
DayanaYastremska #97 · Elo 175147% · fair +111
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Hong Kong Open
ZeynepSonmez #64 · Elo 176853% · fair -111
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Sonmez 53% · Median 24 games · O22.5 57% · TB 32%

How the model works — formula ships with the board, like every Propedia section

Win % = Elo expectancy on a blended rating gap: gap = 0.7 × (surface Elo gap — the surface being played) + 0.3 × (overall Elo gap), P = 1 / (1 + 10^(−gap/400)). Elo ratings are Jeff Sackmann's published Tennis Abstract ratings (overall + Hard/Clay/Grass splits, updated weekly). The sim then converts that win % into a serve-point edge around the tour serve baseline (ATP 64.0% / WTA 56.5% of service points won), calibrates it through the exact point→game→set chain, and runs 10,000 Monte Carlo matches for total games, tiebreak and set-score distributions. Sim win % tracks the Elo win % within ~1 pt across the day's modelled matches — that's the calibration check.
Surface & form design: every stat splits by surface (Hard / Clay / Grass Elo shown in the Tape); recent form is computed on-surface and recency-weighted in the production build — a clay run does not inflate a grass number.
Known gaps, shown not hidden: A player with no current Tennis Abstract Elo carries no model % on their card. Charting stats (Match Charting Project, last 52 weeks) only exist for players with 5+ charted matches. Book lines are not in any free feed we hold — model % + fair odds only, exactly how UFC launched.
SURFACE WATCH
Off their best surface today — Elo drop in red
Alexander Blockx · Paris−65
Best: Clay 1833  ·  Today: Hard 1768
Zhibek Kulambayeva · Chennai Open−126
Best: Grass 1357  ·  Today: Hard 1231
Simona Waltert · Chennai Open−68
Best: Clay 1640  ·  Today: Hard 1572
Luciano Darderi · Paris−120
Best: Clay 1823  ·  Today: Hard 1704
Mariano Navone · Paris−60
Best: Clay 1774  ·  Today: Hard 1714
Matteo Arnaldi · Paris−102
Best: Clay 1778  ·  Today: Hard 1676
Casper Ruud · Paris−76
Best: Clay 1951  ·  Today: Hard 1875
Juan Manuel Cerundolo · Paris−81
Best: Clay 1755  ·  Today: Hard 1674
Robin Montgomery · Chennai Open−61
Best: Grass 1726  ·  Today: Hard 1665
Katarzyna Kawa · Chennai Open−61
Best: Clay 1616  ·  Today: Hard 1555
Vaishnavi Adkar · Chennai Open−68
Best: Grass 1296  ·  Today: Hard 1227
Oleksandra Oliynykova · Hong Kong Open−141
Best: Clay 1692  ·  Today: Hard 1551