PROPEDIA TENNIS
Basel · Vienna · Guangzhou Open · Paris · Chennai Open · Hong Kong Open
39 singles matches · 6 tournaments
Tour
Level
Venue
Event
BIGGEST MISMATCH
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 93%
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Moise Kouame · Paris · Rolex Paris Masters
COIN FLIP OF THE DAY
Assche 50% / 50%
vs Mariano Navone · Paris · Rolex Paris Masters — the market will price this tighter than the Elo gap
TOTAL GAMES OVER WATCH
O22.5 · 62%
Quentin Halys vs Arthur Fery — sim median 26 games, tiebreak 48%
MODEL ML RECORD
36-19
65% on 55 graded model ML picks · 60%+ picks: 27-13 · tracked since Oct 27
TODAYSunday, November 1, 20263 matches
JiriLehecka #21 · Elo 195664% · fair -178
INDOOR HARDFINAL6-2 3-6 3-6
ValentinVacherot #31 · Elo 185836% · fair +178
VV
RESULTVacherot won 6-2 3-6 3-6 · Model ✗ (64%) · Sim median 25 games vs 26 actual
Alexde Minaur #10 · Elo 198230% · fair +235
INDOOR HARDFINAL1-6 4-6
CarlosAlcaraz #3 · Elo 215070% · fair -235
RESULTAlcaraz won 1-6 4-6 · Model ✓ (70%) · Sim median 25 games vs 17 actual
LilliTagger #53 · Elo 177667% · fair -202
OUTDOOR HARDFINAL6-4 3-6 4-6
HarrietDart #115 · Elo 164733% · fair +202
RESULTDart won 6-4 3-6 4-6 · Model ✗ (67%) · Sim median 23 games vs 29 actual
TOMORROWMonday, November 2, 202636 matches
DM
DanielMerida #— · Elo —No model
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
AlexanderBlockx #27 · Elo 1858No model
AB
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
TommyPaul #14 · Elo 1947No model
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
HolgerRune #— · Elo —No model
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
ArthurRinderknech #61 · Elo 176835% · fair +187
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
FranciscoCerundolo #19 · Elo 188665% · fair -187
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Cerundolo 65% · Median 25 games · O22.5 59% · TB 45%
CameronNorrie #41 · Elo 180761% · fair -158
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
MatteoArnaldi #36 · Elo 175139% · fair +158
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Norrie 61% · Median 26 games · O22.5 62% · TB 47%
AlexMichelsen #34 · Elo 186439% · fair +157
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
JiriLehecka #21 · Elo 195661% · fair -157
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Lehecka 61% · Median 25 games · O22.5 60% · TB 46%
UgoHumbert #38 · Elo 180849% · fair +105
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
Botic VanDe Zandschulp #37 · Elo 182151% · fair -105
MATCH SIMSim (10k): De Zandschulp 51% · Median 25 games · O22.5 61% · TB 48%
AndreyRublev #22 · Elo 186768% · fair -212
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
Tomas MartinEtcheverry #29 · Elo 174032% · fair +212
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Rublev 68% · Median 25 games · O22.5 58% · TB 46%
BrandonNakashima #17 · Elo 191064% · fair -181
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
MatteoBerrettini #48 · Elo 180936% · fair +181
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Nakashima 64% · Median 25 games · O22.5 59% · TB 46%
NovakDjokovic #12 · Elo 206377% · fair -327
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
ValentinVacherot #31 · Elo 185823% · fair +327
VV
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Djokovic 77% · Median 23 games · O22.5 54% · TB 42%
LucaVan Assche #46 · Elo 177050% · fair +100
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
MarianoNavone #43 · Elo 179650% · fair -100
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Navone 50% · Median 26 games · O22.5 62% · TB 47%
LorenzoMusetti #26 · Elo 189850% · fair +102
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
HubertHurkacz #28 · Elo 189850% · fair -102
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Hurkacz 50% · Median 25 games · O22.5 61% · TB 48%
IB
IgnacioBuse #32 · Elo 177542% · fair +140
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
ZizouBergs #39 · Elo 181258% · fair -140
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Bergs 58% · Median 25 games · O22.5 61% · TB 47%
DenisShapovalov #52 · Elo 181647% · fair +112
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
KarenKhachanov #24 · Elo 186253% · fair -112
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Khachanov 53% · Median 26 games · O22.5 62% · TB 48%
Alejandro DavidovichFokina #15 · Elo 197293% · fair -1381
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
MoiseKouame #176 · Elo 15127% · fair +1381
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Fokina 93% · Median 20 games · O22.5 34% · TB 31%
AlejandroTabilo #30 · Elo 179223% · fair +336
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
RafaelJodar #11 · Elo 201977% · fair -336
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Jodar 77% · Median 23 games · O22.5 53% · TB 42%
Jan-LennardStruff #— · Elo —No model
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
ArthurGea #44 · Elo 1859No model
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
StefanosTsitsipas #33 · Elo 189747% · fair +114
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
LearnerTien #18 · Elo 191653% · fair -114
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Tien 53% · Median 25 games · O22.5 62% · TB 48%
QuentinHalys #45 · Elo 179454% · fair -117
INDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Paris
ArthurFery #35 · Elo 177346% · fair +117
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Halys 54% · Median 26 games · O22.5 62% · TB 48%
MananchayaSawangkaew #80 · Elo 172172% · fair -264
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Chennai Open
MaiHontama #163 · Elo 154328% · fair +264
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Sawangkaew 72% · Median 23 games · O22.5 51% · TB 29%
PannaUdvardy #78 · Elo 167039% · fair +159
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Chennai Open
RobinMontgomery #150 · Elo 174461% · fair -159
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Montgomery 61% · Median 24 games · O22.5 56% · TB 32%
AnastasiaZakharova #105 · Elo 169561% · fair -155
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Chennai Open
PolinaIatcenko #147 · Elo 163039% · fair +155
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Zakharova 61% · Median 24 games · O22.5 55% · TB 31%
JT
JilTeichmann #168 · Elo 168756% · fair -127
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Chennai Open
JoannaGarland #155 · Elo 161144% · fair +127
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Teichmann 56% · Median 24 games · O22.5 57% · TB 33%
JodieBurrage #— · Elo —No model
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Chennai Open
VaishnaviAdkar #334 · Elo 1241No model
VA
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
OksanaSelekhmeteva #120 · Elo 162350% · fair +101
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Chennai Open
TeodoraKostovic #143 · Elo 164550% · fair -101
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Kostovic 50% · Median 24 games · O22.5 56% · TB 33%
SahajaYamalapalli #369 · Elo 130515% · fair +549
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Chennai Open
SimonaWaltert #128 · Elo 163685% · fair -549
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Waltert 85% · Median 21 games · O22.5 42% · TB 25%
HarrietDart #115 · Elo 164742% · fair +138
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Chennai Open
PolinaKudermetova #91 · Elo 172358% · fair -138
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Kudermetova 58% · Median 24 games · O22.5 56% · TB 31%
ElsaJacquemot #135 · Elo 153019% · fair +424
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Chennai Open
LilliTagger #53 · Elo 177681% · fair -424
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Tagger 81% · Median 22 games · O22.5 46% · TB 27%
JT
JaniceTjen #47 · Elo 1718No model
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Chennai Open
KatherineHui #— · Elo —No model
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
MR
Maaya RajeshwaranRevathi #— · Elo —No model
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Chennai Open
KatarzynaKawa #106 · Elo 1656No model
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
MoyukaUchijima #121 · Elo 159439% · fair +159
OUTDOOR HARDRound 1TBD ET · Chennai Open
RebeccaSramkova #142 · Elo 167061% · fair -159
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Sramkova 61% · Median 24 games · O22.5 55% · TB 31%
ClaireLiu #109 · Elo 170549% · fair +105
OUTDOOR HARDRound 101:00 ET · Hong Kong Open
TatianaProzorova #123 · Elo 169851% · fair -105
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Prozorova 51% · Median 24 games · O22.5 56% · TB 32%
ViktorijaGolubic #74 · Elo 176244% · fair +129
OUTDOOR HARDRound 101:00 ET · Hong Kong Open
KatieBoulter #48 · Elo 179756% · fair -129
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Boulter 56% · Median 24 games · O22.5 55% · TB 31%
KatieVolynets #81 · Elo 180257% · fair -134
OUTDOOR HARDRound 102:30 ET · Hong Kong Open
AliaksandraSasnovich #112 · Elo 174143% · fair +134
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Volynets 57% · Median 24 games · O22.5 56% · TB 32%
Carol Young SuhLee #156 · Elo 164124% · fair +319
OUTDOOR HARDRound 102:30 ET · Hong Kong Open
MariaSakkari #30 · Elo 185176% · fair -319
MATCH SIMSim (10k): Sakkari 76% · Median 22 games · O22.5 50% · TB 29%
VenusWilliams #— · Elo —No model
OUTDOOR HARDRound 105:30 ET · Hong Kong Open
MaryStoiana #113 · Elo 1733No model
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)
WangXinyu #— · Elo —No model
OUTDOOR HARDRound 107:00 ET · Hong Kong Open
AdithyaKarunaratne #— · Elo —No model
AK
MATCH SIMNo sim — a player has no current Elo rating (see notes)

How the model works — formula ships with the board, like every Propedia section

Win % = Elo expectancy on a blended rating gap: gap = 0.7 × (surface Elo gap — the surface being played) + 0.3 × (overall Elo gap), P = 1 / (1 + 10^(−gap/400)). Elo ratings are Jeff Sackmann's published Tennis Abstract ratings (overall + Hard/Clay/Grass splits, updated weekly). The sim then converts that win % into a serve-point edge around the tour serve baseline (ATP 64.0% / WTA 56.5% of service points won), calibrates it through the exact point→game→set chain, and runs 10,000 Monte Carlo matches for total games, tiebreak and set-score distributions. Sim win % tracks the Elo win % within ~1 pt across the day's modelled matches — that's the calibration check.
Surface & form design: every stat splits by surface (Hard / Clay / Grass Elo shown in the Tape); recent form is computed on-surface and recency-weighted in the production build — a clay run does not inflate a grass number.
Known gaps, shown not hidden: A player with no current Tennis Abstract Elo carries no model % on their card. Charting stats (Match Charting Project, last 52 weeks) only exist for players with 5+ charted matches. Book lines are not in any free feed we hold — model % + fair odds only, exactly how UFC launched.
SURFACE WATCH
Off their best surface today — Elo drop in red
Alexander Blockx · Paris−65
Best: Clay 1833  ·  Today: Hard 1768
Matteo Arnaldi · Paris−102
Best: Clay 1778  ·  Today: Hard 1676
Mariano Navone · Paris−60
Best: Clay 1774  ·  Today: Hard 1714
Robin Montgomery · Chennai Open−61
Best: Grass 1726  ·  Today: Hard 1665
Vaishnavi Adkar · Chennai Open−68
Best: Grass 1296  ·  Today: Hard 1227
Simona Waltert · Chennai Open−68
Best: Clay 1640  ·  Today: Hard 1572
Katarzyna Kawa · Chennai Open−61
Best: Clay 1616  ·  Today: Hard 1555